Analysis of Optimization Strategy and Consumer Behavior using Game Theory and Markov Chain on Marketplace Competition.

Abstract

Indonesia is considered one of the biggest markets in the world, therefore as time goes by, the number of marketplaces in Indonesia has increased significantly. The intense among marketplaces in Indonesia drives each platform to develop optimal strategies to maintain their presence. This study aims to (1) analyze optimal strategy using game theory, (2) determine marketplace loyalty using Markov chain, and (3) examine consumer behavior of active students in UNNES and IPMAFA. This research uses game theory and Markov chain methods, with a sample of 250 students selected using the Slovin formula. Data were collected through questionnaires and processed using SPSS and POM-QM. Seven attributes were analyzed: product diversity, price, shipping costs, discount vouchers, feature completeness, payment methods, and product reviews. The results show that (1) In the Shopee vs. Tiktok Shop (Tokopedia) competition, the game value is 70.59, with Shopee’s best strategy being discount vouchers (0.88) and Tiktok Shop’s product reviews (0.96). (2) In Tiktok Shop vs. Lazada, the game value is 84, with price as the dominant strategy for both. (3) In Shopee vs. Lazada, the game value is 135.14, where Shopee excels in price (0.77) and Lazada in discount vouchers (0.65). (4) Shopee's transition probability (48.52%), Tiktok Shop and Tokopedia (39.5%), and Lazada (11.98%), (5) Discount vouchers are the most chosen strategy by users before determining purchasing decisions and to minimize the movement of users from one marketplace to another, each marketplace must maintain its superior strategy in order to maintain its existence.