Spatial-Temporal Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Aceh, Indonesia: A Statistical Perspective

Abstract

 The development of COVID-19 cases in Aceh for each region based on spatio-temporal is vital information to know. Spatio-temporal mapping is carried out to know
the distribution of cases in diversity based on regional and time conditions. The time
series design study was used as the research design in this study. This study aims to
obtain factors that influence the incidence of COVID-19 cases in Aceh using panel
data regression analysis and the GTWR model for more accurate results. There are
nine variables from 23 districts/cities in Aceh Province in 2020 and 2021. Based on
partial panel data regression analysis, of the eight independent variables that are
factors for analysis, it shows that only the variable number of doctors (p < 0.000),
number of Tuberculosis Cases (p < 0.000), Number of Villages with Puskesmas (p
< 0.026), and Number of Poor population (p < 0.035) have a significant effect on
the increase in COVID-19 cases in Aceh. The number of Tuberculosis Cases is a
very dominant variable. Then, the results of the GTWR analysis using the Adaptive
Kernel Exponential weighting function show that regional and time diversity affect
the factors that cause an increase in COVID-19 cases in Aceh. These factors need to
be a concern in controlling COVID-19 cases in Aceh in the future.