Spatio-Temporal Dynamics and the Influence of Socio-Economic Factors on the Crude Incidence Rate of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in South Sulawesi (2020-2023)

Abstract

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2 DM) is a major public health problem in Indonesia. In South Sulawesi, the Crude Incidence Rate (CIR) exhibits substantial variation across district and cities, potentially reflecting underlying socioeconomic heterogeneity. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of type 2 DM CIR from 2020 to 2023 and examined its socioeconomic determinants. An ecological panel study was conducted using secondary data on type 2 DM CIR and ten socioeconomic indicators across all 24 districts and cities in South Sulawesi Province. Spatio-temporal relationships were examined using Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR), complemented by descriptive and spatial statistical analyses. The CIR increased significantly from 2020 to 2023, with Palopo City recording the highest burden. Global Moran’s I showed no significant spatial autocorrelation. Mean Years of Schooling (r = 0.740–0.789), Open Unemployment Rate (r = 0.644–0.693), Human Development Index (r = 0.682–0.749), and Per Capita Expenditure (r = 0.542–0.612; p < 0.01) were consistently significant predictors. GTWR confirmed their spatio-temporal influence across districts and cities in South Sulawesi. Socioeconomic factors significantly shape the spatio-temporal variation of type 2 DM burden in South Sulawesi, highlighting the need for targeted community-based interventions and inclusive socioeconomic policies to reduce disease burden.