PEMODELAN MATEMATIKA PADA EPIDEMI INFLUENZA DENGAN STRATEGI VAKSINASI

M Kharis, AN Cahyono

Abstract


Pada tahun 2009 merebak epidemi flu burung kemudian diikuti epidemi flu babi. Epidemi flu tersebut menyebabkan beberapa kasus kematian dan banyak manusia yang masuk ke rumah sakit. Salah satu usaha yang dilakukan untuk menanggulangi wabah ini adalah dengan melakukan vaksinasi. Vaksinasi dilakukan terhadap orang yang belum terkena influenza. Melihat fakta bahwa penyakit ini bersifat epidemik, maka sangat dimungkinkan untuk membentuk model matematika dari kasus influenza tersebut. Model yang dihasilkan berbentuk SIRS dengan populasi konstan. Dalam penelitian ini digunakan metode tinjauan pustaka, analisis, dan pembuatan simulasi. Simpulan yang diperoleh berupa model matematika dan analisanya serta nilai minimal persentase individu yang divaksinasi supaya wabah tidak meluas.

In 2009, bird flu epidemic outbreak and it is followed by swine flu epidemic. Flu epidemic causes many mortality in human and more of human must be treated in hospital. One of the efforts to combat this plague is vaccination. Vaccination was given to susceptible human. From the fact that the disease is epidemic, it is possible to establish a mathematical model of the influenza cases. The resulting model is SIRS with constant population. In this study, it was used methods include literature reviews, analysis, and simulation. The conclusions obtained in the form of mathematical models and analysis as well as the minimum percentage of individuals who are vaccinated so that the plague has not spread.


Keywords


equilibrium point, equilibrium point stability, the minimum proportion of vaccination

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References


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