Prediction The Number of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever Patients Using Fuzzy Tsukamoto Method at Public Health Service of Purbalingga

Abstract

DHF (Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever) is still a major health problem in Indonesia. One of the factors that led to an increase in dengue cases is uncertain climate that causes dengue fever is difficult to be predicted. Prediction is an important thing that is used to determine future events by identifying patterns of events in the past. When knowing the events that happen, it will make everyone to make better preparation for everything. This research is aimed at determining the accuracy of Tsukamoto Fuzzy method in the number of dengue patients in Puskesmas Purbalingga. Tsukamoto Fuzzy method can be used for prediction because it has the ability to examine and identify the pattern of historical data. Tsukamoto fuzzy that used to predict the number of dengue fever patients at Puskesmas Purbalingga has several stages. The first stage is the collection of climate data includes precipitation, humidity, water temperature and the data of dengue fever patients in Puskesmas Purbalingga. The next stage is processing the data that has been obtained. The last stage is to make predictions. Based on the results of the implementation by Tsukamoto Fuzzy method in predicting the number of dengue fever patients in Purbalingga for twelve months in 2016, it was obtained a percentage error (MAPE) of 8.13% or had an accuracy rate of 91.87 %. With the small value of MAPE and high accuracy, it shows that the system can predict well.