ANALISIS KEMAMPUAN PREDIKSI ARUS KAS OPERASI (STUDI PADA BURSA EFEK INDONESIA)
(1) Jurusan Akuntansi, Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Kristen Surakarta, Indonesia Jl. RW. Monginsidi 36-38, Margoyudan, Surakarta
Abstract
Arus kas operasi merupakan arus masuk dan keluar dari kas dan setara kas yang berasal dari aktivitas operasi yaitu aktivitas penghasil utama pendapatan perusahaan. Arus kas operasi sebagian besar berasal dari aktivitas berulang yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan secara terus menerus, sehingga arus kas operasi sudah dapat dianggarkan sebelumnya. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk menguji kemampuan prediksi arus kas operasi. Data dari seluruh emiten saham yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia pada akhir tahun 2009, dianalisis dengan analisis regresi sederhana dan korelasi Pearson. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa arus kas operasi memiliki kemampuan prediksi satu tahun ke depan dalam 6 sektor industri, yaitu pertanian, pertambangan, industri barang dan konsumsi, property dan real estate, transportasi dan infrastruktur serta perdagangan jasa. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa arus kas operasi tidak memiliki kemampuan prediksi satu tahun ke depan dalam 3 sektor industri, yaitu industri dasar dan kimia, aneka industri dan keuangan.
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Operating cash flow is inflow and outflow of cash. It isequal to the cash comes from the operating activities;it is revenue-producing activities. Operating cash flow mostly is from continuous and repeated activities, therefore the operating cash flow can be well budgeted. This research is intended to testthe predictive capability of operating cash flow. The data from all issuers whose shares are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange in late 2009, were analyzed by using simple regression analysis and Pearson correlation. The result shows that operating cash flow has predictive capability over the next year in six industrial sectors; they are agriculture, mining, food and goods industry, property and real estate, transportation and infrastructure, and trade in services. The result of study also shows that the operating cash flow does not have the ability to predict one year ahead in 3 industrial sectors, namely basic industry and chemical, various industry and finance.
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