PERBANDINGAN METODE DKL 3.2 DAN BAU (BASE AS USUAL) UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBUTUHAN LISTRIK DI KOTA TEGAL TAHUN 2021 - 2026 COMPARISON OF DKL 3.2 AND BAU (BASE AS USUAL) METHODS FOR PREDICTING ELECTRICITY DEMAND IN TEGAL CITY, 2021 - 2026

Abstract

The availability of electrical energy is a very important aspect and even becomes a parameter to support the success of regional development. The availability of adequate and well-targeted electrical energy will spur the development of regional development such as the industrial sector, business entities, public services and even the quality of life of the community with more residents enjoying electrical energy. In making the final project forecasting plan at PT PLN (Persero) Tegal in 2021-2026, two methods are used, namely DKL 3.2 which is a simple model that combines several methods such as econometrics, trends and analysis with a sectoral approach and the BAU (Base As Usual) method. ) is a method where the trend of the pattern of electricity consumption is still the same in the base year. Comparison of the results of forecasting calculations, forecasting the average total growth of the number of customers and electricity consumption using the DKL 3.2 method, namely 4.57% and 4.59%, per year. The BAU method is 4.19% and 4.3% per year. Overall this forecasting accuracy is good because the test results for calculating the forecasting error using the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) method yield 9.32% for the DKL 3.2 method and with the BAU method the average is 9.45%. With the forecasting of the electrical load in the City of Tegal by forecasting using several methods, it is hoped that PT PLN (Persero) can prepare the electricity needs for the City of Tegal in the future. By using the trend of several years and using other independent variables in order to obtain better forecasting results.

Keywords— Forecasting, PDRB, electricity, DKL 3.2, BAU