MODEL EPIDEMI SIRS STOKASTIK DENGANSTUDI KASUS INFLUENZA

  • Novia Nilam Nurlazuardini Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Muhammad Kharis Universitas Negeri Semarang
  • Putriaji Hendikawati Universitas Negeri Semarang
Keywords: SIRS Stochastics Model; Basic Reproduction Ratio; Discrete Time CMJ Process; Continuous Time BGW Process

Abstract

Epidemic SIRS model is an epidemic model which illustrate the spread of disease from suscept to infected, and then become a recovered and become suscept again depend of the immunity. In this article, we dicussed epidemic stochastics SIRS model with embedding epidemic deterministic model, analysis of the model and the behavior of this disease in the future. To obtain the result of basic reproduction ration, Crump-Mode-Jagers process with embedding BGW branching process in some process. From the analysis and the simulation of the model were obtained , if 𝑅0 < 1 then the epidemic is extinct and if 𝑅0 ≥ 1 the epidemic is occurred. To illustrate the model simulation were carried out using Maple software. The model simulation give the same result with the analysis.

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Published
2017-02-27
Section
Articles