PREDIKSI DEBIT JANGKA PANJANG UNTUK SUNGAI BENGAWAN SOLO

Marliana Tri Widyastuti, Muh Taufik, I Putu Santikayasa

Abstract

Sungai Bengawan Solo merupakan sungai terpanjang di Pulau Jawa dimana daerah alirannya telah diklasifikasikan sebagai salah satu Daerah Aliran Sungai (DAS) kritis di Indonesia. Penelitian ini mencoba memprediksi debit jangka panjang Sungai Bengawan Solo, dengan tujuan khusus untuk (i) melakukan kalibrasi dan validasi model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) dalam mengestimasi debit skala bulanan, dan (ii) mensimulasikan debit bulanan untuk periode 1901 – 2016. Penelitian ini, model SWAT menggunakan input data iklim bulanan, penggunaan lahan, dan karakteristik tanah. Berdasarkan hasil evaluasi, secara statistik model mampu mensimulasikan debit bulanan dengan baik ditunjukkan dengan nilai yang rendah dari percent bias (PBIAS: -2.30%) dan RMSE standard ratio (RSR: 0.44), dan nilai Kling-Gupta Efficiency yang tinggi (KGE: 0.87). Berdasarkan debit hasil simulasi, kami menemukan bahwa debit maksimum terjadi pada bulan Maret, sedangkan debit minimum terjadi pada bulan Agustus. Karakteristik debit bulanan Sungai Bengawan Solo untuk aliran tinggi (Q5) sebesar 198.00 mm/bulan, sedangkan aliran rendah (Q90) sebesar 13.00 mm/bulan. Informasi tentang karakteristik hidrologi sungai sangat penting untuk pengelolaan DAS terpadu, terutama untuk mengantisipasi iklim yang sering berubah.

Keywords

Debit Bulanan, CRU, Hydrologic Response Unit, Kalibrasi, SWAT

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