Decision Tree Prediction Model in Patient Mortality Rate based on Risk Factors

Sri Handayani(1), Ririn Nurmandhani(2), Edi Jaya Kusuma(3), Sadono Wiwoho(4),


(1) Universitas Dian Nuswantoro
(2) Universitas Dian Nuswantoro
(3) Universitas Dian Nuswantoro
(4) Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Tengah

Abstract

The Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has become a global problem since WHO declared a pandemic in 2020. The number of deaths due to Covid-19 has increased significantly in many countries. This study aimed to implement decision tree modeling to represent the relationship between risk factors and the mortality rate of Covid-19 patients. This study analyzed secondary data of 83,024 Covid patients from January 2020 to June 2021. Data processing used data mining with the decision tree classification method. The results showed that comorbidity is the leading risk factor for death which is then influenced by age. The higher the age group with comorbidities, the higher the risk of death. Suggested that health services can utilize the results of this study to prevent the severity of Covid-19 infection. Such as the development of comorbid awareness programs and community-based education on managing patients with comorbidities.

Keywords

Covid-19; comorbid; mortality; decision trees; data mining

Full Text:

PDF

References

Anjorin, A.A., Abioye, A.I., Asowata, O.E., Soipe, A., Kazeem, M.I., Adesanya, I.O., & Raji, M.A., 2021. Comorbidities and the COVID-19 Pandemic Dynamics in Africa. Tropical Medicine & International Health: TM & IH, 26(1), pp.2–12.

Bae, S., Kim, S.R., Kim, N., Shim, W.J., & Park, M., 2020. Impact of Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Factors on Fatal Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19 According to Age: a Systematic Review and Meta-¬ analysis. Heart (British Cardiac Society), 107(5), pp.373–380.

Bertsimas, D., Lukin, G., Mingardi, L., Nohadani, O., Orfanoudaki, A., Stellato, B., Wiberg, H., Gonzalez-Garcia, S., Parra-Calderón, C.L., Robinson, K., Schneider, M., Stein, B., Estirado, A., Beccara, L.A., Canino, R., Bello, M.D., Pezzetti, F., & Pan, A., 2020. COVID-19 Mortality Risk Assessment: An International Multi-center Study. PloS One, 15(12).

Bienvenu, L.A., Noonan, J., Wang, X., & Peter, K., 2020. Higher Mortality of COVID-19 in Males: Sex Differences in Immune Response and Cardiovascular Comorbidities. Cardiovascular Research, 116(14), pp.2197–2206.

Clark, A., Jit, M., Warren-Gash, C., Guthrie, B., Wang, H. H. X., Mercer, S. W., Sanderson, C., McKee, M., Troeger, C., Ong, K. L., Checchi, F., Perel, P., Joseph, S., Gibbs, H. P., Banerjee, A., & Eggo, R. M., 2020. Global, Regional, and National Estimates of the Population at Increased Risk of Severe COVID-19 due to Underlying Health Conditions in 2020: a Modelling Study. The Lancet Global Health, 8(8), pp.e1003–e1017.

Corona, G., Pizzocaro, A., Vena, W., Rastrelli, G., Semeraro, F., Isidori, A.M., Pivonello, R., Salonia, A., Sforza, A., & Maggi, M., 2021. Diabetes is Most Important Cause for Mortality in COVID-19 Hospitalized Patients: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Reviews in Endocrine & Metabolic Disorders, 22(2), pp.275–296.

Dessie, Z.G., & Zewotir, T., 2021. Mortality-related Risk Factors of COVID-19: a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis of 42 Studies and 423,117 Patients. BMC Infectious Diseases, 21(1).

Ejaz, H., Alsrhani, A., Zafar, A., Javed, H., Junaid, K., Abdalla, A.E., Abosalif, K.O. A., Ahmed, Z., & Younas, S., 2020. COVID-19 and Comorbidities: Deleterious Impact on Infected Patients. Journal of Infection and Public Health, 13(12), pp.1833–1839.

Gallo-Marin, B., Aghagoli, G., Lavine, K., Yang, L., Siff, E.J., Chiang, S.S., Salazar-Mather, T.P., Dumenco, L., Savaria, M.C., Aung, S.N., Flanigan, T., & Michelow, I.C., 2021. Predictors of COVID-19 Severity: A Literature Review. Reviews in Medical Virology, 31(1), pp.1–10.

Govender, N., Khaliq, O.P., Moodley, J., & Naicker, T., 2021. Insulin Resistance in COVID-19 and Diabetes. Primary Care Diabetes, 15(4), pp.629–634.

Huang, I., Lim, M.A., & Pranata, R., 2020. Diabetes Mellitus is Associated with Increased Mortality and Severity of Disease in COVID-19 Pneumonia - A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Meta-regression. Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome, 14(4), pp.395–403.

Ilmi, L.R., & Praptana, P., 2022. Trend for Risk Covid-19: A Case Study in Indonesia. Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat, 17(3), pp.398–404.

Jin, J.M., Bai, P., He, W., Wu, F., Liu, X.F., Han, D.M., Liu, S., & Yang, J.K., 2020. Gender Differences in Patients With COVID-19: Focus on Severity and Mortality. Frontiers in Public Health, 8.

Kementrian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia., 2020. Keputusan Menteri Kesehatan Republik Indonesia Nomor HK.01.07/menkes/413/2020 tentang Pedoman Pencegahan dan Pengendalian.

Madjid, M., Safavi-Naeini, P., Solomon, S.D., & Vardeny, O., 2020. Potential Effects of Coronaviruses on the Cardiovascular System: A Review. JAMA Cardiology, 5(7), pp.831–840.

Maryati, W., Widyastuti, A., Rizky, A.P.K., Listyorini, P.I., & Aryanti, F.D., 2022. Analisis Karakteristik Pada Pasien Rawat Inap Kasus Covid-19. Infokes: Jurnal Ilmiah Rekam Medis Dan Informatika Kesehatan, 12(1), 20–25.

Merlin, N.M., & Vanchapo, A.R., 2021. Readiness Management in Handling COVID-19 Pandemic and Early Detection in The Referral Hospital in East Nusa Tenggara Province. Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat, 17(2), pp.279–286.

Mohamed, M.S., Moulin, T.C., & Schiöth, H.B., 2021. Sex Differences in COVID-19: the Role of Androgens in Disease Severity and Progression. Endocrine, 71(1), pp.3–8.

Nanda-Nur-Illah, M., 2021. Analisis Pengaruh Komorbid, Usia, dan Jenis Kelamin Terhadap Meningkatnya Angka Kematian pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19. Jurnal Sosial Sains, 1(10), pp.1228–1233.

Nandy, K., Salunke, A., Kumar, S., & Pandey, A., 2020. Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19): A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis to Evaluate the Impact of Various Comorbidities on Serious Events. Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome, 14(5), pp.1017–1025.

Olivia, S., Gibson, J., & Nasrudin, R., 2020. Indonesia in the Time of Covid-19. Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, 56(2), pp.143–174.

Papadopoulos, V., Li, L., & Samplaski, M., 2021. Why does COVID-19 Kill More Elderly Men than Women? Is There a Role for Testosterone?. Andrology, 9(1), pp.65–72.

Pung, R., Park, M., Cook, A.R., & Lee, V.J., 2021. Age-related Risk of Household Transmission of COVID-19 in Singapore. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, 15(2), pp.206–208.

Satria, R.M.A., Tutupoho, R.V., & Chalidyanto, D., 2020. Analisis Faktor Risiko Kematian dengan Penyakit Komorbid Covid-19. Jurnal Keperawatan Silampari, 4(1), pp.48–55.

Sehestedt, T., Ibsen, H., & Jørgensen, T., 2007. Awareness, Treatment and Control of Hypertension in Denmark. The Inter99 study. Blood Pressure, 16(5), pp.312–319.

Song, Y.Y., & Lu, Y., 2015. Decision Tree Methods: Applications for Classification and Prediction. Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry, 27(2), pp.130–135.

Susilo, A., Rumende, C.M., Pitoyo, C.W., Santoso, W.D., Yulianti, M., Herikurniawan, H., Sinto, R., Singh, G., Nainggolan, L., Nelwan, E.J., Chen, L.K., Widhani, A., Wijaya, E., Wicaksana, B., Maksum, M., Annisa, F., Jasirwan, C.O.M., & Yunihastuti, E., 2020. Coronavirus Disease 2019: Tinjauan Literatur Terkini. Jurnal Penyakit Dalam Indonesia, 7(1), pp.45.

Varikasuvu, S.R., Dutt, N., Thangappazham, B., & Varshney, S., 2021. Diabetes and COVID-19: A Pooled Analysis Related to Disease Severity and Mortality. Primary Care Diabetes, 15(1), pp.24–27.

White, A., 2020. Men and COVID-19: The Aftermath Men and COVID-19: The Aftermath. Postgraduate Medicine, 132(4), pp.18–27.

World Health Organisation., 2022. WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data | WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data. World Health Organization.

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.