Modeling Social, Health, and Vaccines Intervention in Time of Covid-19 Pandemic Impacted in Jakarta - Indonesia

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Arief Ameir Rahman Setiawan
Heru Susanto
Firman Tri Adjie
Hafiizh Prasetiya
Joddy Arya Laksmono
Anny Sulaswatty
Edi Iswanto Wiloso
Dudi Hidayat

Abstract

Since the first outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide, research on modeling and simulation has grown, particularly to estimate the peak and end time of the pandemic which has been exceeded in some cases. This study aims to model the current virus spread with discrete event simulation, using the case of Jakarta. About 2 million of Jakarta's susceptible population  was used for the the model's input which ran for a year. The data was obtained from past records and were divided into three main timelines (i.e. initial stage, large scale restriction and new normal) in order to validate the model with real cases step by step. Scenario analysis was then performed by evaluating five possible interventions such as: existing scenarios, social  and health intervention, mass vaccination and hybrid intervention. The results show that the model represents real cases with a variation of less than 5% during the timeline. Furthermore, scenario analysis showed that mass vaccination, hybrid and social intervention  provide the least positive cases in the system. This study recommends that hybrid intervention should be used while the vaccine is being mass produced, and the implementation of social intervention should be highlighted.

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Author Biographies

Arief Ameir Rahman Setiawan, Research Center for Policy and Management of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Scopus ID: 35100938300

Heru Susanto, Research Center for Informatics, Indonesian Institute of Sciences; School of Business, Universiti Technologi of Brunei, Brunei; Information Management, Tunghai University, Taiwan

Scopus ID: 55936452900

Hafiizh Prasetiya, Research Center for Chemistry, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Scopus ID: 57218771105

Joddy Arya Laksmono, Research Center for Chemistry, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Scopus ID: 56069740300

Anny Sulaswatty, Research Center for Chemistry, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Scopus ID: 15064662000

Edi Iswanto Wiloso, Research Center for Policy and Management of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Scopus ID: 55274147100

Dudi Hidayat, Research Center for Policy and Management of Science, Technology, and Innovation, Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI)

Scopus ID: 55326582600

How to Cite
Setiawan, A. A. R., Susanto, H., Adjie, F. T., Prasetiya, H., Laksmono, J. A., Sulaswatty, A., Wiloso, E. I., & Hidayat, D. (2021). Modeling Social, Health, and Vaccines Intervention in Time of Covid-19 Pandemic Impacted in Jakarta - Indonesia. Unnes Journal of Public Health, 10(1), 45-60. https://doi.org/10.15294/ujph.v10i1.43065

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