Artificial Intelligence Disruption and Structural Enrollment Decline in Economics and Business Higher Education: Longitudinal Evidence from Indonesia

Abstract

This study examines structural enrollment decline in economics and business higher education in the era of artificial intelligence (AI), based on a longitudinal analysis of the Accounting and Management study programs at STIE Mulia Pratama, Indonesia, from 1998 to 2025. Institutional enrollment data obtained from the Indonesian Higher Education Database (PDDIKTI) were analyzed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, linear regression, forecasting, and interpretative analysis. The findings identify three major enrollment phases: growth, fluctuation, and persistent structural decline. Regression analysis indicates statistically significant negative enrollment trends in both programs. The Accounting program experienced an average annual decline of 3.356 students, while the Management program recorded a steeper decline of 5.056 students per year. These trends highlight potential challenges associated with technological disruption and changing educational preferences. AI disruption, employability orientation, digital economic transformation, and preferences for competency-based education are discussed as potential factors shaping younger generations’ educational choices. This study conceptualizes declining enrollment as a manifestation of structural transformation rather than merely temporary institutional fluctuation. By integrating longitudinal institutional evidence with perspectives on AI disruption and institutional sustainability, the study provides an analytical framework for understanding the challenges facing higher education institutions in the digital economy.